Room For Three?

By John Zogby,
President and CEO,
Zogby International,
Campaigns and Elections Magazine

It’s a question I get everywhere—whenever I do speeches, make an appearance or do an interview: What are the chances of a new third party? One of my pat responses is that there’s always a centrist political party waiting to be formed. Generally, there’s a group of unaffiliated voters concerned that both political parties may go too far to the fringes. These are people who voted for Ross Perot and find the “maverick” John McCain appealing.

The 2004 election was an anomaly. Seldom has this country been so polarized. Add to this that the election promised to be very close between President George Bush and Sen. John Kerry, leaving little room for a third-party choice. Close elections don’t breed a high confidence level for voting third-party. In 2004, the swing voter declined in number. But we’re now right back to where we were in the 1990s and right back to the era of Ross Perot, where a third party could in fact make its way again.

But there’s an interesting twist. The likely third-party voter has shifted to the far right. We did a lengthy interactive survey of 9,612 voters nationwide, from Feb. 16 to 19, and asked how satisfied they were with the current choices for president.

By and large, 58 percent said they are very or somewhat satisfied. But 37 percent said they are somewhat or very dissatisfied. Particularly noteworthy is that 45 percent of independents and 47 percent of Republicans are somewhat or very dissatisfied. Only 21 percent of Democrats feel this way. So it’s looking to me right now like the Democrats are pleased with their candidates. continue...