AN EPOCH OF PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRIUM

We are like a big fish that has been pulled from the water and is flopping wildly to find its way back in. In such a condition the fish never asks where the next flip or flop will bring it. It senses only that its present position is intolerable and that something else must be tried.

- Anonymous Chinese saying, quoted by Perry Link in China in Transformation, Daedalus (Spring 1993).

When Technology and ideology don't smoothly mix, the economic magna fluxes. Tectonic plates are violently thrust into each other - volcanoes erupt, earthquakes shatter the earth's crust, mountains rise, valleys fall. What has been a top-of-the-food-chain, survival-of-the-fittest species madly flips and flops its way into extinction trying to get back into a stream that is no longer there. The banks of the river move; water flows in new directions. A period of punctuated equilibrium comes into existence.

The economic surface of the earth, the distribution of income and wealth, is now being fundamentally remade. The economic losers are spewed out in a social volcano called religious fundamentalism. An economic earthquake shatters the Mexican economy. China's economy rises; Japan's economy falls. World growth slows dramatically. Real wages fall for most Americans. Europe cannot create jobs for its young. Old successful business strategies (focused on the wants of the middle class), fail. No one knows what the consumer is going to want to buy, and not buy, using electronic shopping. Chief executive officers of major corporations lose their jobs at rates never before seen. A period of economic punctuated equilibrium comes into existence.

A brand-new world with brand-new opportunities has arrived. While the economic plates cannot be pushed back to re-create the old environment, their irresistible movements can be understood , and our actions and institutions modified to allow us to thrive.

This book is an attempt to understand the movement of the economic plates that lie below the visible surface of our economic earth so that it will be possible for those who understand what is happening to them to chart a new direction that enables them to survive and thrive. Periods of punctuated equilibrium offer many new, as yet unexplored territories. They are exciting times. In normal times, when almost everything that can be explored has been explored, the topology is not so interesting.

Perhaps the best way to think of what lies ahead is to imagine that you are Columbus. There is a fortune to be made in the East Indies and you believe that you have a new, better way to get there - by sailing west rather than walking east. Like Columbus, you have a map but like his, half the territory on it is marked "terra incognita." The world to the west is to a substantial extent unknown, but a ship still has to be built to survive storms of unknown ferocity; equipped with sails that will speed it to its not so clear destination, and provisioned with the right amounts of water and food for a journey of unknown length.

What will be the dynamics of the new world into which we are about to sail?

All of the above excerpted from:

Chapter 1 - New Game, New Rules, New Strategies P 19

THE FUTURE OF CAPITALISM

How Today's Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow's World

Penguin Books

Lester C. Thurow Copyright © Lester C. Thurow, 1996 All rights Reserved.

Enabling Environment Conference

Speech by His Highness the Aga Khan at The Enabling Environment Conference in Kabul, Afghanistan
June 4, 2007

Bismillah-ir-Rahman-ir-Rahim

Your Excellency President Hamid Karzai
Your Excellencies
Distinguished Guests
Ladies and Gentlemen

It is a great pleasure and honour to be with you all today. We extend our warmest thanks to all those whose dedication has made this conference possible, most especially to President Karzai and the Government of Afghanistan for their central role - as well as to Prime Minister Shaukat Aziz, who will attend tomorrow's closing session. continue...

Brazil: Too many bumps in the roads?

Finally: The Itaipu hydroelectic dam in Foz do Iguacu, Brazil, was inaugurated Monday. The dam was started about 30 years ago. Jorge Adorno/Reuters

Its Growth Acceleration Project targets $252 billion in energy and infrastructure projects. Critics question if its goals are realistic

By Andrew Downie | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

RIO DE JANEIRO - It's tough getting around Brazil these days.

Go by plane, and the voyage might take days. Equipment failures and strikes or work slowdowns by air-traffic controllers have led to frequent delays over the past six months and caused havoc at airports.

Go by road, and you take your chances on the country's unpredictable highways. Many of Brazil's highways are unpaved, and the ones that are tarred are liable to open up in huge craters at any moment.

On several occasions over the past few months, main roads have washed away, taking cars, buses, and trucks with them.

Go by train – well, that's hardly a serious option because there aren't really any trains. continue...

Timeless exposure: 100-year-old colour photos discovered in attic

By David Usborne in New York

Published: 23 May 2007

Just how much cash they might have raised no one can say, but for students of photography the three glass-plate images that Charlotte Albright found in her attic in Buffalo, New York state, last summer are little short of priceless. Happily, the pictures are not bound for an auction house but rather the venerable George Eastman House museum in Rochester, which will display them this autumn. They are remarkable in many ways, not least because they are by Edward Steichen and - though a century old - are in colour. continue...

David Howarth: These nonsensical arguments for nuclear power

The Government has been rushed into a bad decision by a clever public relations campaign

Published: 23 May 2007

Although today's White Paper on energy is accompanied by a "consultation" about nuclear power, pronouncements from both of Britain's prime ministers leave little room for doubt that the British Government believes that the country's energy problems cannot be solved without recourse to a new generation of nuclear power. continue...

Nuclear power consultation launched

Published: 23 May 2007

A five-month consultation on the "significant role" new nuclear power stations could play in cutting emissions and diversifying energy supplies was launched by the Government today.

Ministers made clear they want new nuclear power stations to be built, sparking a fresh row with environmental campaigners who accused the Government of peddling a "failed policy".

Trade and Industry Secretary Alistair Darling said it was the Government's preliminary view that it was in the public interest to give private energy firms the option of investing in new nuclear building projects. continue...

Opium: Iraq's deadly new export

Amid the anarchy, farmers begin to grow opium poppies, raising fears that the country could become a major heroin supplier

By Patrick Cockburn in Baghdad
Published: 23 May 2007

Farmers in southern Iraq have started to grow opium poppies in their fields for the first time, sparking fears that Iraq might become a serious drugs producer along the lines of Afghanistan. continue...

Dominic Lawson: Nuclear has always been the best option

Blair's recent volte-face has nothing to do with climate change, whatever might be claimed
Published: 22 May 2007

Tony Blair once boasted that he has "no reverse gear". That's because he achieves the same direction of travel by performing spectacular U-turns. Tomorrow he will accomplish perhaps the most skilful of them all, with the publication of an Energy White Paper which endorses the building of a new generation of nuclear power stations. continue...

Blackstone details float as China takes $3bn stake

By Stephen Foley in New York
Published: 22 May 2007

Blackstone, the world's most powerful private equity firm, will raise $7.75bn (£3.93bn) from outside investors as part of its groundbreaking stock market flotation.

The company has been setting out the financial details of its highly anticipated initial public offering (IPO), including a $3bn investment from the Chinese government that Blackstone hopes will be the first chapter in a lucrative relationship. continue...

The Big Question: Is Bertie Ahern likely to win a historic third term as Irish leader?

By David Mckittrick, Ireland Correspondent
Published: 22 May 2007

Why are we asking this now?
On Thursday voters in the Republic of Ireland go to the polls to decide whether to give the sitting Prime Minister, Bertie Ahern, and his Fianna Fail, an unprecedented third term in power. continue...

A market edge for Muslims

Prayerful approach: Monem Salam is a deputy portfolio manager for Amana Funds, a fund group that applies Islamic law to its stock picks. ‘If Islam forbids it, then we’re not going to buy it,’ he says.
Josie Liming/Special to the Christian Science Monitor

Islamic funds make gains by avoiding financial-services firms and those deep in debt.

By G. Jeffrey MacDonald | Correspondent of The Christian Science Monitor

The strategy is almost heresy on Wall Street: Find a top-performing investment by seeking out a mutual fund with some of the industry's strictest ethical screening requirements.

Yet that approach, if adopted, would work in at least one case. The Amana Income Fund, which avoids not only alcohol, tobacco, and gambling stocks but also pork producers and lenders who charge interest, received a Lipper award earlier this year for outperforming 180 equity income funds – screened and unscreened – over the past three years. continue...

Stephen King: How hot money has put central bankers worldwide in a sweat

Raising interest rates simply increases the magnetic attractions of New Zealand for foreign investors
Published: 14 May 2007

It's not often that you'd choose to mention the UK, France, New Zealand and China in the same breath, but when it comes to the future of monetary policy, there's good reason to do so. In all four countries, policymakers are scratching their heads, wondering what to do next. Admittedly, they're starting from different positions, and their conclusions are likely to diverge significantly, but each country has some sort of monetary conundrum. Given that inflation targeting was supposed to be the answer to our economic worries, this is a little surprising. continue...

'Only wealthiest will be able to afford solar panels'

By Martin Hickman, Consumer Affairs Correspondent
Published: 10 May 2007

Solar and wind power will be unaffordable to all but the "wealthiest homes" it was claimed yesterday after the Government cut the maximum grant for their installation by 83 per cent.

In a move that prompted warnings of job losses in the renewable power industry, the Trade and Industry Secretary Alistair Darling disclosed yesterday that householders installing green energy would be able to make a total claim of £2,500. Previously, they had been able to apply for a grant of £15,000; comprised of £10,000 for a PV solar panel system and £5,000 for a wind turbine. continue...

Deforestation: The hidden cause of global warming

In the next 24 hours, deforestation will release as much CO2 into the atmosphere as 8 million people flying from London to New York. Stopping the loggers is the fastest and cheapest solution to climate change. So why are global leaders turning a blind eye to this crisis?

By Daniel Howden  Published: 14 May 2007

The accelerating destruction of the rainforests that form a precious cooling band around the Earth's equator, is now being recognised as one of the main causes of climate change. Carbon emissions from deforestation far outstrip damage caused by planes and automobiles and factories. continue...

Lau will lead Isles' largest company

Posted on: Saturday, February 11, 2006

By Rick Daysog
Advertiser Staff Writer

CONSTANCE H. LAU

Title: Effective May 2, president and CEO, Hawaiian Electric Industries Inc.; chairwoman of Hawaiian Electric Co. Inc., HEI's utility subsidiary

Age: 53

Education: Punahou School; bachelor of science, Yale University; law degree from University of California Hastings College of the Law; master of business administration from the Stanford University's Graduate School of Business

Family: Married to Russell Lau, CEO of Finance Factors; three children

Lau, who joined HEI in 1984, has been president and chief executive officer of the company's American Savings Bank subsidiary since 2001. She helped transform the bank from a sleepy savings and loan into a full-service community bank. She will continue to head the bank after taking the top job at HEI.

Lau also serves as on the boards of Alexander & Baldwin Inc., Kamehameha Schools and Punahou School, and is president of the Hawaii Bankers Association.

"Ms. Lau has an outstanding record of achievement at American and is successfully transforming the bank from a retail thrift to a full-service community bank," Clarke said.

Hawaiian Electric Industries is the largest publicly traded company based in Hawai'i, with annual revenues of about $2.2 billion. continue...

Why the Fight against Poverty Is Failing: A Contrarian View

Published: October 31, 2006 in Knowledge@Wharton

Abraham George is the founder of The George Foundation, an NGO engaged in humanitarian work in India, and the author of India Untouched: The Forgotten Face of Rural Poverty. In this contrarian essay, he explores why the current strategies that governments and development agencies are employing to reduce poverty are not working the way they should. Among his arguments: Microcredit programs, as they are now practiced in India, do little to help the poor.

By the World Bank's broad definition of poverty ($2.00 or less a day per person), there are more poor people in the world today than a quarter century ago. Nearly half the world's population, over three billion people, lives in poverty. In India alone, two-thirds of its one billion-plus population is poor. Yet, the strategy for alleviating poverty across practically every developing nation has remained essentially the same for the past several decades. continue...

Microfinance 2.0 - Forbes.com

Microfinance 2.0
Knowledge@Wharton 04.10.07, 3:50 PM ET

Some of the major misconceptions about microfinance--small loans of under $100 that enable Third World residents to become entrepreneurs--can be summed up by what happened roughly a decade ago, when the pioneering Grameen Bank decided to help female villagers in Bangladesh enter the mobile phone business. continue...

Corn-based ethanol: the biggest greenwash ever?

Posted by Tom Philpott at 6:51 AM on 29 Mar 2007 

It's hard to imagine what politicians and corporate chiefs are intending to do by crafting a corn-based ethanol boom, beyond rigging public policy (and raiding the public purse) to generate huge private profits.

But whatever their intentions, they're methodically creating environmental and social disasters -- while brazenly brandishing the "green" flag. continue...

Former weed may fill world's fuel tanks

In the world's most arid agricultural environments, jatropha is emerging as an alternative to ethanol.

Germinal industry: A woman tended a jatropha plant last October northeast of Mumbai. Foreign firms are contracting villagers to grow the oil-rich plant. Reuters/Newscom

By Mark Sappenfield | Staff writer of The Christian Science Monitor

Reporters on the job: Mark Sappenfield shares the story behind the story .

JAGDALPUR, INDIA - In an overgrown corner of Moolchand Sethia's plantation, runty and unloved, stands what could be the next revolution in the world's search for renewable fuel.

From China to Brazil, countries have begun setting aside tens of thousands of acres for the cultivation of jatropha – a plant many experts say is the most promising source for biodiesel. At the same time, companies from Europe and India have begun buying up land throughout Africa to establish jatropha plantations.

Wolfowitz adviser plans to resign due to 'poor working atmosphere'

By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer
Published: 08 May 2007

A top adviser to World Bank President Paul Wolfowitz is leaving the institution, citing the continuing controversy surrounding Wolfowitz' handling of a pay package for his girlfriend.

"Given the current environment surrounding the leadership of the World Bank Group, it is very difficult to be effective in helping to advance the mission of the institution. Therefore, I have decided to leave for other opportunities," Kevin Kellems told The Associated Press yesterday. continue...