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AN EPOCH OF PUNCTUATED EQUILIBRIUM

We are like a big fish that has been pulled from the water and is flopping wildly to find its way back in. In such a condition the fish never asks where the next flip or flop will bring it. It senses only that its present position is intolerable and that something else must be tried.

- Anonymous Chinese saying, quoted by Perry Link in China in Transformation, Daedalus (Spring 1993).

When Technology and ideology don't smoothly mix, the economic magna fluxes. Tectonic plates are violently thrust into each other - volcanoes erupt, earthquakes shatter the earth's crust, mountains rise, valleys fall. What has been a top-of-the-food-chain, survival-of-the-fittest species madly flips and flops its way into extinction trying to get back into a stream that is no longer there. The banks of the river move; water flows in new directions. A period of punctuated equilibrium comes into existence.

The economic surface of the earth, the distribution of income and wealth, is now being fundamentally remade. The economic losers are spewed out in a social volcano called religious fundamentalism. An economic earthquake shatters the Mexican economy. China's economy rises; Japan's economy falls. World growth slows dramatically. Real wages fall for most Americans. Europe cannot create jobs for its young. Old successful business strategies (focused on the wants of the middle class), fail. No one knows what the consumer is going to want to buy, and not buy, using electronic shopping. Chief executive officers of major corporations lose their jobs at rates never before seen. A period of economic punctuated equilibrium comes into existence.

A brand-new world with brand-new opportunities has arrived. While the economic plates cannot be pushed back to re-create the old environment, their irresistible movements can be understood , and our actions and institutions modified to allow us to thrive.

This book is an attempt to understand the movement of the economic plates that lie below the visible surface of our economic earth so that it will be possible for those who understand what is happening to them to chart a new direction that enables them to survive and thrive. Periods of punctuated equilibrium offer many new, as yet unexplored territories. They are exciting times. In normal times, when almost everything that can be explored has been explored, the topology is not so interesting.

Perhaps the best way to think of what lies ahead is to imagine that you are Columbus. There is a fortune to be made in the East Indies and you believe that you have a new, better way to get there - by sailing west rather than walking east. Like Columbus, you have a map but like his, half the territory on it is marked "terra incognita." The world to the west is to a substantial extent unknown, but a ship still has to be built to survive storms of unknown ferocity; equipped with sails that will speed it to its not so clear destination, and provisioned with the right amounts of water and food for a journey of unknown length.

What will be the dynamics of the new world into which we are about to sail?

All of the above excerpted from:

Chapter 1 - New Game, New Rules, New Strategies P 19

THE FUTURE OF CAPITALISM

How Today's Economic Forces Shape Tomorrow's World

Penguin Books

Lester C. Thurow Copyright © Lester C. Thurow, 1996 All rights Reserved.